Oakes, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXUS63 KBIS 301745
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures continue through mid-week. Breezy
  winds are likely across the east today, then across the west
  on Monday.

- Medium to high chances (~50 to 90 percent) of accumulating
  snow are possible for the middle of next week in multiple
  waves. Best chances central and east.

- There is a 40 to 80 percent chance of 4 inches of snow or
  greater along and east of the Missouri River Valley and south
  of the Highway 2 corridor.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Mostly cloudy skies continue across the north and west this
afternoon. A few flurries or perhaps sprinkles are possible as
reports continue to come in underneath the lingering clouds.
Added flurry/sprinkle mention to mainly the southwest through
this afternoon and into this evening. Otherwise the forecast
overall remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Only minor updates needed this morning. Cloud cover continues to
be found across much of the CWA. A few flurries or brief light
snow showers are possible this morning across some central and
southwestern areas. Made minor PoP adjustments to account for
this. With this lingering cloud cover, blended in NBM10th for
high temperatures today. This lowered highs slightly for most
areas. Breezy winds also look to linger across the east today. Otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

There`s been a band of light snow that has been moving across
portions of the northwest and into the north central over the
past couple of hours. Thus, we decided to increase chances here
to likely categories (~70 percent) for the next few hours. This
activity should move out to the east/dissipate by around 14z or
so. Otherwise, no major changes were needed for this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Early this morning, the low pressure system to our south
continues to move off to the east along with most of the snow
chances. Western and central North Dakota is mainly caught up in
split flow aloft, but there is a weak northern stream wave that
has been bringing some light snow/flurries to the northwest and
north central. We could see a few more hours of this activity
but little to no accumulation is expected.

For the rest of today, expect some decreasing clouds across the
north but the south will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy. Winds
will once again be fairly breezy out of the north across the
east. Tonight we should see some clearing south before clouds
increase again from southwest to northeast on Monday.
Temperatures will be on the cool side once again today with
highs expected to range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures will then be just a touch warmer on Monday but
still below normal, with highs forecast to range from the mid
30s to mid 40s. Another bout of breezy winds is likely on
Monday, but this time across the west and out of the southeast
as the pressure gradient tightens and return flow is
established.

We will start to see some mid-level height falls move into
western North Dakota by Monday evening/night as a low amplitude
ridge axis moves off to the east in advance of a broad western
CONUS trough. Most guidance suggests that an initial impulse
will lead to increasing precipitation chances overnight with
snow becoming likely across the south central and portions of
the southeast. Deterministic models are suggesting that omega in
the dendritic zone here will be rather strong with some decent
mid-level frontogenesis, but synoptic forcing will be rather
weak with this initial impulse. Still, some periods of moderate
to heavy snowfall are possible through the night across the
south central and southeast. While some pockets of light
precipitation may linger through the day on Tuesday, there may
be a little bit of a lull with regards to the heavier
precipitation. The temperature profile during the day on Tuesday
could also make precipitation type a bit tricky with many areas
warming enough to see some rain mix in. Highs on Tuesday are
forecast to range from the mid 30s northeast to the lower 40s
southwest.

By Tuesday evening, a mid-level low will close off near the
Wyoming/South Dakota border as a surface low deepens somewhere
over north central or northeast Nebraska. The surface low will
lift up into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Wednesday
morning, becoming stacked with the mid-level low. A deformation
band of heavy precipitation should develop to the west and north
of this system, leading to medium/high chances (~50 to 90
percent) of snow for most of western and central North Dakota
Tuesday evening and through the overnight hours (some rain may
continue to mix in across the west and south during the early
evening). The best chances for higher precipitation totals
continue to appear likely over the central and east (with the
exception of maybe the far north). Precipitation will then
gradually diminish from west to east through the day on
Wednesday.

Now, let`s talk about some potential totals. Confidence
continues to grow that we could see some significant snowfall
accumulations by the time the system exits Wednesday night. The
latest NBM probabilities once again took a step up for this
forecast package, with the chances of 4 inches or greater now
ranging from 40 to 80 percent, generally along and east of the
Missouri River Valley and south of the Highway 2 corridor (best
chances across the southern and eastern portions of this area).
The best chances for 6 inches or greater is generally east of
the Highway 83 corridor and along and south of the the Highway
200 corridor (40 to 70 percent). Increasing the threshold to 12
inches and we even have some 20 to 30 percent probabilities
over southern portions of the James River Valley on the North
Dakota side. While clusters have come together to show a
relatively similar solution, there could still be some flies in
the ointment. It is unclear about how much rain will mix in (or
for how long) during the daytime hours of Tuesday and Wednesday
(although for now it appears the heaviest precipitation will
move through late Monday night and Tuesday night/early
Wednesday). In a closely related issue, this will also be a
fairly progressive (fast moving) system which could end up
limiting the final totals depending on when the heaviest
precipitation does move through. Still, confidence is increasing
that we will see some significant snowfall somewhere across the
central and/or east in the Monday night through Wednesday time
frame (again, with a little bit of a lull possible during the
day on Tuesday). For this reason, we will start advertising the
potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and amp up the
messaging on social media. Finally, it will be breezy to windy
across the south central and southeast Tuesday and Wednesday,
which may lead to some areas of blowing snow. Stay tuned!

Temperatures will rebound a little bit to end the week and
through the weekend. NBM highs are currently forecast to mainly
be in the lower 40s to lower 50s Thursday through Saturday (and
potentially warmer on Sunday). That being said, NBM temperature
spreads remain rather large from Thursday on. A couple more
weak waves could move through around this time frame, but there
is little agreement between the various ensemble systems with
regards to the pattern after the mid-week storm moves through
(likely a major factor with respect to the large NBM
temperature spreads).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Lingering cloud cover will continue to bring MVFR to perhaps
brief IFR conditions through this afternoon across most sites,
with MVFR to VFR conditions from about KBIS to KJMS. Some
flurries or sprinkles are possible with this low cloud cover
today, although confidence is too low to include at this time.
Tonight, clouds are expected to go on a diminishing trend,
although could linger at MVFR to low VFR levels through the
night. Monday morning then sees mainly VFR conditions, although
some sites could see FEW to SCT MVFR to low VFR ceilings.
Breezy northerly winds may still linger today, especially in the
east. Breezy southerly winds are then possible for Monday,
especially in the west.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Anglin